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Foundations of Public Administration - 935 Words

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Electrical Submersible Pump Survival Analysis free essay sample

Petroleum Engineer, Chevron Corp. Masters Degree Candidate Advisor Dr. Jianhua Huang With help from PHD Candidate Sophia Chen Department of Statistics, Texas AM, College Station MARCH 2011 ABSTRACT A common metric in Petroleum Engineering is â€Å"Mean Time Between Failures† or â€Å"Average Run Life†. It is used to characterize wells and artificial lift types, as a metric to compare production conditions, as well as a measure of the performance of a given surveillance monitoring program. Although survival curve analysis has been in existence for many years, the more rigorous analyses are relatively new in the area of Petroleum Engineering. We will write a custom essay sample on Electrical Submersible Pump Survival Analysis or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page This paper describes the basic theory behind survival analysis and the application of those techniques to the particular problem of Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) Run Life. In addition to the general application of these techniques to an ESP data set, this paper also attempts to answer: Is there a significant difference between the survival curves of an ESP system with and without emulsion present in the well? Although survival curve analysis has been in existence for many years, the more rigorous analyses are relatively new in the area of Petroleum Engineering. As an example of the growth of these analysis techniques in the petroleum industry, Electrical Submersible Pump (ESP) survival analysis has been sparsely documented in technical journals for the last 20 years: ? ? ? First papers on the fitting of Weibull Exponential curves to ESP run life data in 1990 (Upchurch) 1993 (Patterson) Papers discussing the inclusion of censored data in 1996 (Brookbank) 1999 (Sawaryn) Paper discussing the use of Cox Regression in 2005 (Bailey) Unfortunately, the papers applying these techniques did little to transfer the knowledge to the practicing Petroleum Engineers. They shared the technical concepts and equations, but not the practical knowledge of how to apply them to real life problems or why these analyses improved upon the â€Å"take the average of the run life of failed wells† technique most commonly used. THEORY OF SURVIVAL ANALYSIS Survival analysis models the time it takes for events to occur and focuses on the distribution of the survival times. It can be used in many fields of study where survival time can indicate anything from time to death (medical studies) to time to equipment failure (reliability metrics). This paper will present three methodologies for estimating survival distributions as well as a technique for modeling the relationship between the survival distribution and one or more predictor variables (both covariates and factors). Appendix A has a list of important definitions relevant to survival analysis. KAPLAN MEIER (NON-PARAMETRIC) Non-parametric survival analysis characterizes survival functions without assuming an underlying distribution. The analysis is limited to reliability estimates for the failure times included in the data set (not prediction outside the range of data values) and comparison of survival curves one factor at a time (not multiple explanatory variables). A common non-parametric analysis is Kaplan Meier (KM). KM is characterized by a decreasing step function with jumps at the observed event times. The size of the jump depends on the number of events at that time t and the number of survivors prior to time t. The KM estimator provides the ability to estimate survival functions for right censored data. ti is the time at which a â€Å"death† occurs. i is the number of deaths that occur at time ti. When there is no censoring, ni is the number of survivors just prior to time ti. With censoring, ni is the number of survivors minus the number of censored units. The resulting curve, as noted, is a decreasing step function with jumps at the times of â€Å"death† ti. The MTBF is the area under th e resulting curve; the P50 (median) time to failure is (t) 0. 5. Upper and lower confidence intervals can be calculated for the KM curve using statistical software. A back-of-the-envelope calculation for the confidence interval is the KM estimator +/2 standard deviations. Greenwood’s formula can be used to estimate the variance for nonparametric data (Cran. R-project): Figure 1: Example Kaplan Meier survival curve showing estimate, 95% confidence interval, and censored data points When comparing two survival curves differing by a factor, a visual inspection of the null hypothesis Ho: survival curves are equal, can be conducted by plotting two survival curves and their confidence intervals. If the confidence intervals do not overlap, there is significant evidence that the survival curves are different (with alpha lt; 0. 05%) COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD (SEMI-PARAMETRIC) Semi-Parametric analysis enables more insight than the Non-Parametric method. It can estimate the survival curve from a set of data as well as account for right censoring, but it also conducts regression based on multiple factors/covariates as well a judge the contribution of a given factor/covariate to a survival curve. CPH is not as efficient as a parametric model (Weibull or Exponential), but the proportional hazards assumption is less restrictive than the parametric assumptions (Fox). Instead of assuming a distribution, the proportional hazards model assumes that the failure rate (hazard rate) of a unit is the product of: ? a baseline failure rate (which doesn’t need to be specified and is only a function of time) and a positive function which incorporates the effects of factors covariates xi1 – xik (independent of time) This model is called semi-parametric because while the baseline hazard can take any form, the covariates enter the model linearly. Given two obser vations i i’ with the same baseline failure rate function, but that differ in their x values (ie two wells with different operating parameters xk), the hazard ratio for these two observations are independent of time: The above ratio is why the Cox model is a proportional-hazards model; even though the baseline failure rate h0(t) is unspecified, the ? parameters in the Cox model can still be estimated by the method of partial likelihood. After fitting the Cox model, it is possible to get an estimate of the baseline failure rate and survival function (Fox). A result of the regression is an estimate for the various ? coefficients and an R-square value describing the amount of variability explained in the hazard function by fitting this model. Relative contributions of factors/covariates can be interpreted as: ? ? ? gt;0, covariate decreases the survival time as value increases, by factor of exp(? ) ? 0 scale; kgt;0 shape ?(ln(2))1/k The Weibull shape parameter, k, is also known as the Weibull slope. Values of k less than 1 indicate that the failure rate is decreasing with time (infant failures). Values of k equal to 1 indicate a failure rate that does not vary over time (random failures). Values of k greater than 1 indicate that the failure rate is increasing with time (mechanical wear out) (Weibull). A change in the scale parameter, ? , has the same effect on the distribution as a change of the X axis scale. Increasing the value of the scale parameter, while holding the shape parameter constant, has the effect of stretching out the PDF and survival curve (Weibull). Figure 2: Example Weibull curves with varying shape scale parameters The Weibull regression model is the same as the Cox regression model with the Weibull distribution as the baseline hazard. The proportional hazards assumption used by the CPH method, when applied to a survival curve with a Weibull function baseline hazard, only holds if two survival curves vary by a difference in the scale parameter (? ) not by a difference in the shape parameter (k). If goodness of fit to the Weibull distribution can be achieved, a confidence interval can be calculated for the curve, the median value and its confidence interval can be calculated, and a comparison of the differences in two survival curves can be conducted. Goodness of fit can be tested in R using an Anderson Darling calculation and verified with a Weibull probability plot. Poor fit in the tails of the Weibull distribution is a common occurrence for reliability data due to infant mortality and longer than expected wear out time. STEPWISE COX W EIBULL REGRESSION Given a large number of explanatory variables and the larger number of potential interactions, not all of those variables may be necessary to develop a model that characterizes the survival curve. One way of determining a model is by using Stepwise model selection through minimization of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). This model selection technique allows variables to enter/exit the model using their impact on the AIC calculated at that step. AIC is an improvement over maximizing the R-Square in that it’s a criterion that rewards goodness of fit while penalizing for model complexity. APPLICATION TO AN ESP DATA SET As stated previously, these survival analysis techniques can be applied to many types of data in many industries ranging from survival data for people in a medical study to survival data for equipment in a reliability study. These methodologies have many uses in the petroleum industry; from surface equipment system and component reliability used by facility and reliability engineers, to well and downhole system and component reliability used by petroleum and production engineers. As an example, this paper illustrates the use of these techniques on the run life of Electrical Submersible Pumps (ESP). ESPs are a type of artificial lift for bringing produced liquids to the surface from within a wellbore. Appendix B includes a diagram of an ESP. For this paper, the run life will refer to the run life of an ESP system, not the individual components within the ESP system. While this paper focuses on ESP systems, these same techniques could be applied to other areas of Petroleum Engineer interests including run life of individual ESP components, other types of artificial lift, entire well systems, etc. DATA DESCRIPTION ESP-RIFTS JIP (Electrical Submersible Pump Reliability Information and Failure Tracking System Joint Industry Project) is a group of 14 international oilfield operators who have joined efforts to gain a better understanding of circumstances that lead to a success or failure in a specific ESP application. The JIP includes access to a data set of 566 oil fields, 27861 wells, 89232 ESP installations, and 182 explanatory factors/covariates related to either the description of the ESP application or the description of the ESP failure. For the analysis described in this paper, a subset of the data has been used, restricted to: ? ? ? ? ? ? Observations related to Chevron operated fields observations with no conflicting information (as defined by the JIP’s data validation techniques) factors that were related to the description of the ESP application (excluded 27) factors not confounded with or multiples of other factors (excluded 30) factors with a large number (gt;90%) of non-missing data points (excluded 78) factors that were not free-form comment fields (excluded 27) Appendix C has a list of the original 182 variables with comments on why they were removed from the analyzed data set, below is a table of the 20 remaining explanatory variables included in this analysis. SUMMARY TABLE OF DATA INCLUDED IN THE CPH/REGRESSION ANALYSIS: OBSERVATIONS: 1588 DESCRIPTION RunLife Censor Country Offshore Oil Water Gas Scale CO2 Emulsion CtrlPanelType NoPumpHouse PumpVendor NoPumpStage NoSealHouse NoMotorHouse MotorPowerRating NoIntakes NoCableSys CableSize DHMonitorInstalled DeployMethod COVARIATE/FACTOR # OF LEVELS Response Censor Flag (0, 1) Factor (7 levels) Factor (2 levels) Covariate Covariate Covariate Factor (5 levels) Covariate Factor (3 levels) Factor (2 levels) Covariate Factor (2levels) Covariate Covariate Covariate Covariate Covariate Covariate Covariate Factor (2 levels) Factor (2 levels) DESCRIPTION Time between date put on production and date stopped or censored 1 if ESP failure 0 if still running or stopped for a different reason Country Field in which the ESP is operated Indication of whether the ESP was an onshore or offshore installation Estimated average surface oil rate (m3/day) Estimated average surface water rate (m3/day) Estimated average surface gas rate (1000m3/day) Qualitative level of scaling present in the well % of CO2 present in the well Qualitative level of emulsion present in the well Type of surface control panel used Number of pump housing s Pump Vendor Number of pump stages Number of seal housings Number of motor housings Motor rated power at 60Hz (HP) Number of intakes Number of cable systems Size of cable Flag for installation of a downhole monitor Method of ESP deployment into the well FINDING THE P50 TIME TO FAILURE FOR A DATASET Example 1: Using the entire data set, what is the P50 estimate for the runtime of a Chevron ESP? The answers differ considerably for the 4 calculation types: METHODOLOGY Mean or Median Kaplan Meier Median CPH Median INCLUDES CENSORED? No Yes Yes P50 ESTIMATE (DAYS) Mean: 563 Median: 439 1044 1043 ASSUMPTION None None None (as no comparison of levels/covariates, essentially same results as KM) Anderson Darling GOF for Weibull Distribution N/A N/A N/A ASSUMPTIONS MET ? Weibull Median Yes 1067 NO (rejected the null hypothesis of good fit, due to poor fit in the tails) In this example, the biggest impact on the difference between the methods is the inclusion of censored data. A large number of the ESPs in this data set have been running for gt;3000 days without a failure and were excluded in the often used calculation of the average run life of all failed ESPs. Given that the Weibull distribution did not pass the Anderson Darling goodness of fit test, the most appropriate calculation would have been the KM or CMH. Appendix E has the output from the various methodologies. The interpretation of these results is that the P50 estimate of run life for an ESP installation in Chevron is ~ 1044 days. Additional, output from the KM analysis sets the 95% confidence interval at 952 to 1113 days. Figure 3: Comparison of estimation methods for full data survival curve. Note the deviation of the Weibull in the tails of the data. COMPARING TWO SURVIVAL CURVES DIFFERING BY A FACTOR Example 2: Using the 2 level factor emulsion, does the presence of emulsion in the well make a significant difference in the P50 run life of an ESP system? METHODOLOGY Mean or Median Kaplan Meier Median CPH Median INCLUDE CENSOR? No Yes Yes EMULSION P50 (DAYS) Mean 600 Median 458 606 533 NO EMULSION P50 (DAYS) Mean 536 Median 424 1508 1408 SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE? Don’t know Yes (visual Inspection of CI) Yes, with a Likelihood ratio test and a pvalue of 0, reject that B’s are the same. Yes, with a z test statistic and a pvalue of 0, reject that the scale values are the same. INTERPRETATION Well performance is about the same Wells without emulsion perform much better Wells without emulsion survive longer. Exp(B) indicates 2. 5 times increased survival time for no emulsion. Wells without emulsion survive longer. Scale parameter value indicates 2. 75 times increased survival time for no emulsion. ASSUMPTIONS MET ? No. (Reject null hypothesis of prop. hazards with a p value of 0. 01. ) No. Reject null hypothesis of good of fit due to poor fit in the tails) Weibull Median Yes 531 1463 The more complex the methodology used, the more information is available to interpret the results. Again, the addition of censored data resulted in a very different interpretation of the data than just using the mean/median value of all failed ESPs; not just in the order of magnitude of the results, but also determination of which condition resulted in a longer run life. The results of both the CPH Weibull methodologies are suspect due to their failure to meet the prerequisite assumptions. Looking at the plots, it is apparent that the fit is poor in the tails. Appendix F has the output from the various methodologies The interpretation of these results is that wells without emulsion have gt; a 2x increase in their P50 run life than wells with emulsion. It should be noted that given the other factors that differ in the operation of these ESPs, this difference may not be fully attributed only to the difference in emulsion, but this interpretation should lead to further investigation. Figure 4: KM estimated survival curves for ESPs with and without emulsion with confidence interval Figure 5: Comparison of estimation methods (KM, CPH, Weibull) for ESPs with and without emulsion CHOOSING THE VARIABLES THAT CHARACTERIZE A SURVIVAL CURVE Example 3: Of the variables collected by the JIP, which most describe the survival function? Do the variables collected in the dataset capture the variation in the survival function? As stated previously, both Weibull Cox regression fit a model using explanatory variables. The introduction of Stepwise variable selection to that regression allows the preferential fitting of the model by minimizing the AIC. As Weibull regression is a special case of Cox regression with a Weibull baseline hazard function, and as Cox regression has less restrictive assumptions than parametric regression, this example will focus solely on Cox regression using Stepwise

The Functions And History Of The Roman Senate Essays -

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6 Essential Managerial Skills You Need to Be a Successful Manager

6 Essential Managerial Skills You Need to Be a Successful Manager In order to be a successful manager, you need to create an environment that helps your team to  excel. But the managerial skills needed to achieve that aren’t necessarily taught or set in job descriptions. This doesn’t mean that you’re going to be a terrible manager before developing the managerial skills of a good manager. Not at all.Weekdone.com has provided a  useful infographic  below, listing out the managerial skills any excellent manager should have:Source: [BusinessInsider]

Movie review of Jesus of Montreal Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

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Understanding Applicable rates and charges for shipments for budgeting Case Study

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The Crucible Essay Example for Free

The Crucible Essay The setting of Salem, Massachusetts in Arthur Miller’s The Crucible is a setting that is accessible and relevant to the reader, as it is grounded in realism. Although it is different from our society, it did once exist, and therefore helps us understand what can happen in a fear based society. The theocratic setting is grounded in realism and Miller uses this to warn us that history repeats it’s self, and may do so again, as similar events happened in America in the 1950’s. Miller uses Salem 1692 to show us some of the implications of living in a fear based society, like having a good name. In a fear based society, nobody is automatically trusted, everyone is judged by their name. John Proctor has had a good name his whole life in the village of Salem. However when he has information that could prove Abigail is not as good as she appears, he is conflicted between confessing that he had an affair with her and ruining his good name, or watching people he knows are innocent be convicted and keeping quiet. He does not want to â€Å"blacken† his name in the village. So he keeps the information to himself about the affair until it is too late, and nobody will believe him because his name is no longer good. This shows that having a good name was so important in this society that you would risk your friends being convicted of witchcraft to keep your name ‘white’. Toward the end, when Proctor is about to confess to witchcraft, he refuses to sign away his name â€Å"you have taken my soul, leave me my name! † He yells, and from this we see there is nothing more important to him. Similarly, Judge Danforth is fixated on having a good name. We see this when he is not willing to postpone John Proctor’s hanging. He knows that John could be innocent, but if he postpones the hanging, the village could question Danforth’s judgement. So Danforth would rather innocent people die, than the court’s, or his reputation be put on the line. From these two characters, we get a sense of how much value a name can hold. The setting is vital in helping us understand this theme. Miller wants us to understand that in the close, fear-based village of Salem your name has so much value and holds your entire reputation. It must be kept ‘white’ as people make every decision about you based on your name. It s ridiculous events like this that happen in a fear based society. However Salem 1692 is grounded in realism, so we are forced to consider our own society, and what actions take place currently as a result of fear. Take the Boston Marathon bombings for example. The USA lives in constant threat of terrorist attacks so when a bombing takes place, most American’s and the rest of th e world are quick to assume it was the doing of the Middle East, when in fact there is no evidence at all to suggest that. Miller is encouraging us not to jump to conclusions in times of panic or unrest. In fear based societies, things often happen that we would now consider ludicrous, like suspicion being accepted as proof, Miller uses a setting that is grounded in realism to show us this. In Salem, 1692 people lived in constant fear of the devil, witchcraft and spending the afterlife in hell. Villagers were so scared of the power of the devil, and the horrors of witchcraft, that anyone who was behaving with the slightest suspicion, or was in any way different, could be accused of being a witch. This is because they had no other explanation for the behaviour. This meant that people like Tituba (a black slave) and Goody Good (homeless woman) were easily targeted and convicted by power hungry Abigail. We saw this conviction with a lack of evidence with goody Osborne. The evidence used to condemn her was that she did things like cause â€Å"a black coldness† to climb up Mary’s back, and for her to have a stomach ache, and she mumbled. As â€Å"Witchcraft is ipsofacto an invisible crime. Therefore who may possibly be witness to it? The witch and the victim. None other. † The accused witch’s word cannot be trusted; therefore Mary’s word is accepted as fact in the court. Another seemingly ludicrous result of living in a fear based society is when Abigail and the girls’ hysteric reactions to people are seen as proof. Mr. Hale even admits that he has â€Å"Seen too many frightful proofs in court† showing that he takes these reactions as solid evidence and reason enough to hang. By using this setting with such rigorous moral code, expectations and fear of the devil, Miller shows us how desperation can cloud judgement, and when fear and â€Å"common vengeance writes the law† suspicion can be accepted as proof. We are more willing to accept what Miller is telling us here because it is set in a realistic society that we view critically. Miller creates parallels to other events in history, and even now, to this real society from history to show us that history repeats. The Crucible takes place in a theocratic society, meaning that the bible is fact and law, people make every decision in life to please god and go to heaven after death. This of course means that witches are real as the bible states â€Å"thou shalt not suffer a witch to live† thus the people of Salem genuinely believe â€Å"the devil is loose in Salem†, and witches must be sought after and killed. The Crucible was written in the 1950’s, as an allegory for the events that were happening in regards to communists in America. In the 1950’s people lived in constant fear of communists – America was at war with the Soviet Union, so if someone was seen supporting communism, they were accused of supporting the Soviet Union. The trials to convict communists needed very little evidence and were very unfair, it is only because people lived in constant fear that these events could happen. Miller intentionally created direct parallels to the 1950’s with 1692 Salem. Having the drama set in 1692 allows us to view the text more critically. We are personally removed from it, and can therefore more willingly accept the ideas that Miller is trying to convince us of. The text is a warning of the irrational things that come out of fear. By using this real event in history, and creating parallels with America in the 1950’s, Miller wants us to acknowledge that we are not above these people, history just repeats it’s self. We should be able to lean from the Salem witch hunt, and even 1950’s USA, but even today we still jump to conclusions in tense situations. The setting of this play is grounded in realism, it did actually happen and the characters just represent human nature. Once we recognise this, we see that all humans are capable of behaving in this ludicrous way. In fact we still see this in today’s society in Guantanamo bay. As a result of terrorist acts against the country, and the fear of more attacks the U. S military will interrogate, prosecute, act as the defence council, be the judges in trials of people who are suspected to be terrorist (often by racist stereotypes, Muslim/Islamic men). This gives possibly innocent people a hideously unfair trial and further validates Miller’s point – That suspicion and accusation can be accepted as proof in fearful situations. We also see from this that the setting must be grounded in realism, by creating links in events that happened in that setting, to other events in history, we are forced to accept these ideas as true. Miller warns us through the setting of theocratic Salem in 1692, an allegory for America in the 1950’s of the irrational actions that come from fearful situations and extreme societies. These ideas are accessible and relevant to the reader because the setting is grounded in realism.

The Beginning Of Time :: essays research papers fc

The Beginning Of Time There was a period in history when the beginning of the world in which we live in was a expressed through legends and myths, now, through the use of increasingly advanced scientific equipment we can see that the universe is more vast and complex than ever imaginable. The purpose of this paper is to bring light to some of the modern beliefs regarding the origin of the universe by answering a series of questions. What are the commonly excepted theories of the evolution of the universe? What is meant by the "Big Bang Theory" and how does it work? And how our planet and solar system developed from The Big Bang? This paper will use scientific data to base the evolution of our universe around The Big Bang. At the present time there are two theories which are used to explain the creation of the universe. The first theory is the infamous Big Bang Theory, which will be detailed later. The second is the Steady State Theory. (Weinberg, 1977) The later hypothesis was created to replace the common belief that the universe was completely static. The expansion of the universe was discovered in 1929 when Edwin Hubble discovered that every galaxy in the universe was moving away from each other, this meant that the universe was expanding. Hubble found the movement of the galaxies by using a phenomenon known as the Doppler effect. This effect caused bodies moving away from an observer to have a "red-shifted" spectrum (the light spectrum of the body had been shifted closer to red) and bodies moving towards an observer to be "blue-shifted" (Hawking, 1988) The expansion was traced backwards through time to discover that all the galaxies had originated from the same point. It was later believed that all matter spawn from that "center of the universe" discovered by Hubble, by means of some sort of enigmatic portal. Matter would collect outside this singularity and form every moon, planet, and star known today. The Steady State Theory was very attractive because it featured a universe with no beginning or end. The theory meant that scientist had to abandon the laws of conservations of mass and energy. It seemed plausible that the aforementioned laws of physics could breakdown at a certain point but more and more evidence gathered against the Steady State Theory, leading to unending modifications to it. Until finally the theory was dropped completely with the discovery of the smooth microwave background radiation (radiation so ancient it had shifted right out of the visible spectrum into microwave radiation). A smooth background to the universe suggested that it was hot and uniform - the

Succubus on Top CHAPTER 14

I wasn't prepared for Dana to answer Bastien's door the next day. Oh my God, I thought. He finally slept with her. The truth turned out to be far less exciting. Bastien – as Mitch – was covered up to his elbows in flour, his hands busily kneading a medium-sized lump of dough. â€Å"Hey Tabby Cat,† he said upon seeing me and my startled expression. â€Å"Dana's teaching me to bake bread.† â€Å"Wow,† I said. Really, there was no other way to respond to a statement like that. I had personally seen Bastien make bread in far more primitive conditions, but he apparently believed the old teacher-student routine was going to pave the way to Dana's bed for him now. It did have its merits, of course. Human nature liked showing superiority in areas of expertise, and a teaching relationship provided lots of alone time together. I suspected that even with that tactic, Dana might still be out of reach, but hey, maybe it was worth a shot. The fact that she actually made time for this struck me as odd. I figured she'd be too busy bombing abortion clinics and handing out school uniforms. Speaking of alone time, I worried that I'd blundered into some meaningful opportunity for the incubus. I met his eyes. â€Å"I can come back later if it's a bad time,† I told him. â€Å"No, no. Dana's got to go to a meeting soon. You can keep me company once this baby's in the oven.† His tone was genuine. He'd probably already exhausted efforts to get her to stay. Uneasy in her presence, I sat on one of the stools by the counter and sipped the white-chocolate mocha I'd picked up on my way over. Dana sat down beside me. I resisted the urge to move away. Glancing at his kitchen table, I saw stacks of CPFV pamphlets and brochures. â€Å"Why the interest in cooking?† I asked blandly when no one said anything. â€Å"A bachelor can't live on fast food and frozen dinners forever, huh?† He turned up the dial on his smile. â€Å"And hey, I'm always open to new experiences. Next time she's going to teach me to make creme brulee.† I grunted. â€Å"You learn to makecreme brulee, and I might have to move in.† Dana turned to me, elegantly crossing her legs, showing that oh-so-wholesome slip obtained during the infamous shopping trip. I'd given up on slips a while ago. They just delayed the main event. â€Å"I could show you too.† Hell no. I'd gotten roped into yard work by pursuing a similar vein of conversation with Jody. No more domestic vices for me. Besides, I knew Bastien wouldn't welcome my presence. â€Å"Thanks, but I'll just leave it to Mitch. He's the brilliant one in this family anyway.† Bastien gave the bread a final pat. â€Å"Okay, now what?† â€Å"Now we put it in the pan.† She walked over to show him. As she did, he leaned in extra close, supposedly to get a better look. He even reached out his hand to brush hers, following her motions as they transferred the bread. Perhaps it would have been polite to look away, but there was nothing overtly romantic going on, and besides, I felt a professional interest in the matter. Histechniquewas good, I had to admit. Very subtle. Nothing that could be misconstrued as more than a polite accident. Yet, I saw Dana – just as subtly – stiffen and step away once the bread was in its pan. â€Å"Now you just let it rise,† she said, in a somewhat cooler tone. â€Å"Then it goes in the oven.† Interesting. She hadn't liked Bastien's proximity. That didn't bode well for him. I didn't think he noticed, however. I would have expected her to leave, but she sat down next to me again. I could never think of anything interesting to say around her; she unnerved me too much. So I let the two of them talk, answering only when spoken to and otherwise letting Bastien run the show. He positively glowed. Dana tried to draw me in a number of times, again asking me things about my life I really didn't want to answer. When she finally rose to go, she commented, â€Å"I'm off to a board meeting to plan our upcoming rally against gay marriage. You two should join us when it happens.† â€Å"Absolutely,† said Bastien, who probably would have agreed to an anti-incubus rally at this point. She glanced over at me. My tongue suddenly felt thick, words again eluding me. â€Å"Are you for gay marriage?† she asked with surprise. â€Å"I thought when we talked about this at the mall, you had implied you were more in favor of helping them see the error of their ways.† Christ. Had we discussed this on the mall trip? I couldn't remember. The only thing I recalled clearly was the lingerie debacle. I wanted to argue right then that I didn't think homosexuality was a â€Å"choice† for all people, nor did I believe there should be laws about who people loved. Fortunately, my control switch was fully operational. That, combined with Bastien's heavy gaze, made me redirect my answer and evade the question. â€Å"I'd love to go to the rally,† I said flatly. â€Å"It'll depend on my schedule.† She smiled thinly, made a few parting remarks, and then left. I exhaled. â€Å"Sorry about that, Bas. I nearly choked up on you.† â€Å"Not a problem. You recovered. Besides, I think things are turning around. I thought of it the last time she and Jody were over. This cooking thing is going to be what does it.† He peered into the oven at his now-baking bread before sitting at the kitchen table happily. â€Å"Can't you see it? We'll be like, I don't know, baking a cake together, and I'll say, ‘Why Dana, you have chocolate frosting on your cheek.' Then she'll say, ‘Will you get it off for me?' Then I will, only I'll lick it off – â€Å" â€Å"Okay, just stop now, please. I get the picture. I really don't want to hear about you two rolling around in cake batter.† â€Å"You'll have to once it's on the evening news.† I smiled, relieved to see him so cheered up after our last encounter. I couldn't bring myself to tell him I didn't think the cooking lessons were making Dana quite as hot and heavy as he would have liked. If we were going to save Bastien from demonic wrath, I believed we needed a better understanding of what – if anything – turned that woman on. And I had the distasteful feeling that I would be a better agent for that particular piece of reconnaissance than he would be. One more thing to add to my list. â€Å"So what's new with you?† â€Å"Oh, the usual. Another awkward physical encounter with Seth. Not nearly as big a deal as the last one, but still.† Bastien shrugged. â€Å"Alas for mortal weakness.† Dana left my mind as my own personal relations came to the forefront. â€Å"That's the thing. Everyone's been going on and on about how he wouldn't be able to handle our relationship, but it's not his weakness that's the problem. It's me. I'm the faulty piece here. Seth's done exactly what he's supposed to. He handles every horrible thing I tell him about myself, and he never does anything to cross the sexual line. His one moment of weakness was when I initiated things. He's perfect.† â€Å"Nobody's perfect, Fleur .If there's anything I feel certain of in this world, it's that. Even the angels themselves are imperfect.† I thought about Carter's chain-smoking and penchant for hard liquor. â€Å"That's for damned sure. But Seth comes pretty close. At least as mortals go. Whereas me†¦I don't know. I feel so useless in our relationship.† He stood up and drew me to him. â€Å"What is this, your day to feel melodramatic and depressed? Look. No way are you useless – not if you've been with him this long. He's in it for more than sex. He's in it for you. For that delightful wit and charm that manages to cheer even grumpy bastards like me up. What I can't figure out is what the hell you're getting out of it.† â€Å"Plenty,† I said, thinking of Seth's humor and intelligence, his serious and steady nature. â€Å"And I suppose he's happy with what he's got, but he must still, you know, feel unfulfilled. He's a man, right? I see him looking at me sometimes, and I know what he's thinking†¦what he wants.† I thought about my toe-teasing. â€Å"I don't think I really make it easy on him either. I flirt without thinking about it. I wish I could give him, I don't know, something. Something nonlethal to reward his amazing celibate strength – and overall amazingness with everything that's happened so far. â€Å" â€Å"Nonlethal's going to be hard for you. You're the ultimate look-don't-touch girl.† My slumping head shot up. â€Å"That's it.† â€Å"What's it?† â€Å"Looking without touching. You're going to help me.† I felt my natural optimism and vigor seizing me as I flashed the incubus a saucy grin. â€Å"You're going to be my photographer.† His eyebrows rose, but I think he already knew where I was going with this. â€Å"And pray tell, what will I be photographing, my dear?† â€Å"Me. In a bevy of alluring poses and skimpy underwear. Or nothing at all. We'll do a whole spread.† His smile twitched at the word spread. â€Å"And you think this will help him? All it'll do is drive him into the bathroom alone for ten hours.† â€Å"Hey, he can do whatever he wants with them, but it's a great idea. It'll be a treat. A safe way of having me without having me.† I poked the incubus in the arm. â€Å"You'll help, won't you? You're the only person I trust to take these.† â€Å"Of course I'll help you. Why'd you even ask?† I sighed happily, like a great load had been taken off of me. â€Å"Of course, even if this is good for Seth, it doesn't solve the problem of me being a weak-willed strumpet. I'll still be thinking about him all the time. Still wondering what it'd be like to touch – really touch – him. Still breaking down with him in moments of weakness.† I sighed again, this time with frustration. â€Å"There's no helping me, I guess. Pictures of him won't do it.† â€Å"Hey,† said Bastien, touching my chin. â€Å"Smile again. You'll figure out something. And if not, I promise you I will. The brother you never had, remember? We're here for each other, n,est-ce pas ?† I smiled and leaned my head against his chest. â€Å"Oui.† We stayed like that for a few pleasant minutes until I remembered far less sentimental issues. I sat up. â€Å"Oh, hey, you have got to check something out.† I picked up my purse and pulled out the bag of crystals Alec had given me. Bastien recoiled when I held them out to him. â€Å"What the hell are those?† â€Å"That's the million-dollar question. These are what's causing my friend at the bookstore to act so weird.† Regaining his composure, he leaned in to look closer but wouldn't touch the bag. â€Å"They're strange,† he said slowly. â€Å"They give off something†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"Like an immortal signature,† I agreed. â€Å"But I've never felt an inanimate object that did this. It's not the same as an enchantment.† â€Å"It doesn't feel bad exactly†¦just not right.† â€Å"I asked Seth about it. Mortals don't feel anything, only us. Ever come across anything like this?† â€Å"No, but then I'm the novice next to you, right?† I slid the crystals back into my purse, to the relief of both of us, and then explained what Alec had said about mixing them in liquid. â€Å"Curiouser and curiouser,† mused Bastien. â€Å"Not like any drug I know, but it's not giving off any legitimate potion vibes either. If you want to know what this is, Fleur ,you're going to have to break out the big guns.† I knew he was right. We hung out together a while longer, moving on to less weird subjects. The bread smelled so good cooking that there was no way I could leave until I'd tried a piece. Upon tasting it, I decided that whatever her other faults, Dana knew what she was doing with food. I ended up getting away with a good half loaf of the bread and then drove back downtown to find the â€Å"big guns.† I got a lucky break, and Jerome actually answered his cell phone and gave me his location. Even if he hadn't, it would have been on my list of places to try. The Cellar was an old, dark pub in Pioneer Square, Seattle's historic district. You had to take a flight of stairs down to get to the Cellar, and I always had the feeling the place wouldn't survive the Northwest's next big earthquake. The Cellar was one of Jerome and Carter's favorite haunts. I found them both there in their usual corner. The place was dark, as always, and was starting to pick up a little with happy-hour traffic. Angel and demon watched me enter with their typically amused expressions, both having sensed me before I cleared the door. Jerome always gave the impression over the phone that I was taking up his time, but neither seemed particularly busy now. I ordered a gimlet at the bar, smiling at the two guys who made conversation while I waited, and then moved on to join the dynamic duo. â€Å"A working lunch?† I asked, inclining my head at the empty shot glasses in front of them. The two practically sat side by side, so the only other chair was across from them, like I was at an interview. Carter picked up one of the empty glasses and offered me a mock toast. I clinked my glass with his. â€Å"Don't question the divine workings of the universe, Daughter of Lilith. â€Å" â€Å"The Lord's work is never done,† added Jerome solemnly. They both seemed a little loopy, but I wasn't fooled. Higher immortals like angels and demons could control their levels of intoxication. The other lesser immortals and I had said a number of stupid things in front of them when we thought either Jerome or Carter had been wasted. Their eyes held a shrewd scrutiny even now that told me they were both curious about why I'd sought out my supervisor in the middle of the day. â€Å"Been to see the incubus?† Jerome asked a moment later. I nodded. â€Å"He thinks he's making progress.† â€Å"Thinks?† asked the demon, raising one eyebrow. I wondered if John Cusack could actually do that. â€Å"Is there a doubt?† â€Å"I didn't say that.† â€Å"But you also didn't say that he is making progress.† â€Å"A slip of the tongue. I misspoke.† â€Å"You don't misspeak often, Georgie. And I've come to actually believe you do know something about seduction after all. And maybe even human nature.† â€Å"Something?† Carter laughed at my incredulous tone. â€Å"So,† continued Jerome, â€Å"in your expert opinion, is your friend going to be able to do this or not?† I was about to say â€Å"of course,† but knew Carter would recognize the lie. Hell, even Jerome probably would. â€Å"I don't know. She's hard to read. Very strange woman.† I pursed my lips, thinking. â€Å"If anyone is capable of seducing her, though, it'll be him. With my help.† I hesitated before adding, â€Å"You know about the Barton thing, don't you?† â€Å"Of course. Very foolish on Bastien's part.† â€Å"I guess.† I didn't want to slam one of my best friends in this company. â€Å"But it's not like our side is really known for impulse control. And it seems kind of stupid for Barton to get so worked up over a woman who sleeps around all the time anyway. What's one more person, immortal or not?† â€Å"Because the immortal meant something,† said Carter seriously. â€Å"You of all people should recognize the nuances here. What would Seth think if you slept with me?† â€Å"Are you offering?† I turned to Jerome, feigning excitement. â€Å"I get to retire if I bag an angel, right? Full pension and everything?† â€Å"Depends on the angel,† yawned Jerome. Carter kept his complacent smile, unfazed by jokes about his celibacy or immortal standing. â€Å"You know what I mean. There's a difference between business and choice.† I nodded. I did know what he meant, and he was right – being with Seth made me especially cognizant of the subtleties. â€Å"You know, I didn't come here to discuss this,† I told them. Both had the tendency to steer me off topic into subjects I didn't want to explore. â€Å"Well, do enlighten us then,† said the archdemon indulgently. â€Å"I'm dying to know what would draw you away from suburban conspiracy and mortal intrigue in the middle of the day.† â€Å"Actually, it involves mortal intrigue.† I gave them a debriefing on the Doug situation. Jerome maintained his perpetual look of disinterest. Carter almost did, but snide or not, he was still an angel, and I saw compassion flicker in his eyes as I spoke. He couldn't help it. â€Å"So, I finally managed to get Alec to give me the stuff, and now I need to know what it is. You two seemed like my best shots at identification. â€Å" Jerome's disinterest turned to astonishment. â€Å"This is what we've been reduced to? Drug identification? Do we look like the DEA?† Carter stretched lazily. â€Å"Remember the good old days when succubi used to want our help defending them from nephilim and other lethal creatures? This is a sign of the times, I tell you. â€Å" I let them have a good laugh at my expense, forcing myself to stay calm and not say something that would get me into trouble. â€Å"Are you guys done?† I asked a minute later. â€Å"Because I'd really like to get moving on this.† â€Å"Are you going to share some of it with us if we can tell you what it is?† asked Jerome. Rolling my eyes, I reached into my purse. With a flourish, I tossed the little bag out onto the table so it slid across the surface and came to rest just in front of both of them. Their smiles disappeared. They stared at the bag for a moment and then – in almost perfect synchronization – looked at each other and back to me. When Carter spoke, he was amused, but grimly amused. â€Å"Maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to rule out supernatural monsters after all.† â€Å"How,† exclaimed Jerome, nostrils flaring, â€Å"do you always manage to get yourself mixed up in the middle of this shit?† I looked back and forth between the two of them. â€Å"What? What is it?† â€Å"This, Georgina,† announced Carter, tapping the bag with his finger, â€Å"is the Food of the Gods.†

Double Entry Journal Example

â€Å"Moushumi wonders how long she will live her life in trappings of student hood in spite of the fact that she is a married woman that she’s as far along in her studies as she is that Nikhil has a respectable if not terribly lucrative job. It would have been different with Graham-he’d made more than enough for both of them† (Lahiri 254)| One of the main themes in this story is pressure. Throughout the story Gogol feels pressured by his parents to follow the Bengali culture, to marry a Bengali girl, to eat Bengali food and to live the Bengali lifestyle. Myself being of the South Asian decent, I can relate to Gogol as well. My parents expect me to marry a Sri Lankan boy because they believe a Sri Lankan boy can make me happy. They also want to continue to pass down our culture to newer generations. This quote foreshadows the breakup that is going to happen between Gogol and Moushumi because you can tell Moushumi isn’t happy with the life she lives with Gogol. Gogol is pressured by his mother to ask out Moushumi a Bengali girl. They end up getting married but as they spend more and more days together through individuation Moushumi realises that she is not happy and this is because she was pressured into marrying a Bengali. She made herself believe her and Gogol had a lot in common and that they had a good time with each other, but deep down inside she only married him because it was what her parents wished for (her to marry a Bengali man). It develops the plot because as she begins to compare Gogol to Graham she realises she isn’t satisfied and starts to cheat on her husband. Bengali parents ideology is that culture guides you in life, it helps find your place. Throughout the story Moushumi puts on a persona of being a happy wife, who is loyal to her husband. But she is really sad about her relationship with Gogol and she transgresses by cheating on him with a former friend. Cheating on Gogol was a good move for Moushumi because this is what helps her realise that she is not happy and in love with Gogol. Gogol is a proletariat who worked hard to become an architect but Moushumi seems to be more interested in men in the bourgeoisie class. She cheated on Gogol with a very rich man (Dimitri) who inherited his wealth through his grandma. Moushumi cheating on Gogol was good for Gogol because he becomes aware of his life and what he believes in. He slowly begins to realise that his parents had gone through the trouble of learning different customs such as Christmas dinners and other celebrations all for him. This relates to peoples everyday life because a lot of people come to Canada as immigrants but they slowly adapt to the country and it’s traditions such as Canada Day. Gogol realises that all the events that happened in his life have shaped him and determined who he is. Moushumi and Gogol lived in patriarchy because Gogol had more power over Moushumi. She turned down a grant offer that she had applied for even before she met Gogol. She knew that Gogol wouldn’t like her going to another country for a few months so she declined the offer. The other reason she dropped the offer was because she needed to take care of the house now that she was a wife. The story follows the stereotype of women cleaning the house and looking after the husband. Moushumi is portrayed as an object who listens to what Gogol says, but she slowly gains power as she begins to cheat and at the end she becomes the subject because she has the power and ends the relationship. | â€Å"†¦read the book he had once forsaken, has abandoned until now. Until moments ago it was destined to disappear from his life altogether, but he salvaged it by chance, as his father was pulled from a crushed train forty years agoâ€Å" (Lahiri 290)| Another main theme is identities. Throughout the story Gogol only wants an American life, he decides to rebel against his culture by changing is name from Gogol to Nikhil. This quote develops the plot because it shows that by the end of the story Gogol gains more knowledge about his culture and slowly begins to accept it. When Gogol finally decides to read the book he is in the setting of his home specifically his room. This shows that throughout his journey (highschool/university) Gogol rebelled against his culture and it did nothing but brought him back to his own bed. The book Gogol`s father gives him is an anima symbol because it represents the feminine side of both Gogol and his father. Books are known to give information and to express ones feelings, this is also what females are known to do. By giving his son this book Gogol`s father is sharing his life story and how he felt about the train crash with his son. The train crash is a metaphor for life and death because the train represents how quick life really is and the crash represents the end of it. The symbol of the book developed the plot because without the book there wouldn’t be anything to symbolise Gogol`s fathers journey. After Gogol`s fathers passing Gogol becomes the subject in his house. Ashima and Sonia live under patriarchy because Gogol tells them what to do and what not to do. The story also follows the universal unconscious of men being the one to protect their families. As soon as Mr. Ganguli a hard working proletariat passes away everyone expects the son to step up and protect the family. Ashima doesn’t mind this because she is use to having a man protect her. This follows the stereotype of men leading the household and women just being objects and following. Women are represented as weak people in this story because they cannot do things for themselves and they always rely on men. In my household both my mom and dad have an equal say in everything that goes on, they both contribute there ideas. Also in the world today you definitely don’t always find men leading. Women are becoming leaders and filling many positions that are usually occupied by men. For example many women today are working in construction sites and are accountants or doctors. If I was Ashima I would learn to become more independent and not rely on men to do everything, this would give me a sense of pride because I would realise I can live my life without a husband. Ashima`s persona throughout the story is a caring mother who tries her very best to make her family happy. One key ideology in this story is education makes you a better person because it instils positive values. Gogol studied hard throughout university and finally became an architect. Throughout his education he gained positive values such as being very hardworking and intelligent and this helps him throughout his journey.

The Everyday Man essays

The Everyday Man essays As far as it is perceivable, the stereotypical male mind is made up of two mental elements: the need for superiority, and the need to enhance said superiority. To retain any ambition in life, there must be a target to surpass; a particular goal; an icon of inferiority to realise ones superiority. However, for this to balance there needs to be an equilibrium; two extremes that balance one another; (the superior being) and (the inferior being). The two extremes can range. It is possible to have two males in similar positions academically, or two males either side of the academic scale; and in either scenario the male mentality will be to surpass one another. At this stage of the male mind friends and allies cease to be focal in the overall objective, and instead become in themselves targets (; inferior beings) that target a must surpass to reach what is considered the ultimate aspiration. Ironically to first be in such a position, where you can take allies and friends for granted, you must build up a rapport from which you can derive superiority. Hitler a carbon copy that portrays this psyche; building up a military rapport of superiority that places him within a position of power; not just to influence those who he has surpassed, but in turn allows him the power to dictate the actions of those who he has surpassed in such a way that they in turn dictate the actions of the general population. In this case Hitler () influencing the Jewish population () through the enforcement of Nazi Elite (). However in terms of ambition, the influencing factor, , will always contain as much to aspire to as subject a. Within a sports team there are numerous slots, however the overriding ambition is to obtain star status, to become the pinnacle that so much attention is focussed upon; the one position that all others aspire to, and too which you a ...

Writing Tips How to Use Commas and Semicolons Part 2

Writing Tips How to Use Commas and Semicolons Part 2 Need some writing help with how to use commas and semicolons? Check out Part 1 of this series if you haven’t already, then read on for more punctuation rules and how to fix a comma splice. Semicolons are the proper punctuation marks to use when you want to connect two strings of words that could stand on their own as full sentences, but that are so closely related that you want to make them part of the same sentence. If you read my article last week, you saw some examples of that.   Heres how it works: The following word strings could all  stand as sentences on their own: In high school I was certain of my academic strengths. The daughter and younger sister of doctors, I excelled in math and science and dreaded every English course I was ever forced to take. Addison’s Disease is a chronic adrenal insufficiency that leads to liver failure, kidney failure, effusions, and in some cases, death. I was determined that it would not kill my brother. When you put a comma between two sentences, it is called a â€Å"comma splice† and it is an incorrect way to use a comma! The following is an INCORRECT use of a comma: [INCORRECT] In high school I was certain of my academic strengths, I excelled in math and science. See how each of the two parts of the sentence can stand on its own? In high school I was certain of my academic strengths. I excelled in math and science. You can fix a comma splice in one of three ways: 1.   Replace the comma with a period: [CORRECT] In high school I was certain of my academic strengths. I excelled in math and science. 2. Add a conjunction, such as or or and,  after the comma: [CORRECT] In high school I was certain of my academic strengths, and excelled in math and science. 3. If the sentences are closely related,  replace the comma with a semi-colon: [CORRECT] In high school I was certain of my academic strengths; I excelled in math and science. Conversely, if you have two parts of your sentence that do NOT stand on their own, it is INCORRECT to connect them with a semicolon. Here are two examples of an INCORRECT use of a semicolon: [INCORRECT] Finally you can convert all those friends on Facebook into something useful; spreading the word about your skills, experience and what a great hire you would make. Can you see that while the first part of this sentence is a sentence (â€Å"Finally you can convert all those friends on Facebook into something useful.†), the second part of the sentence is NOT a sentence (â€Å"Spreading the word about your skills, experience and what a great hire you would make.†).   Therefore   it is INCORRECT to divide them with a semicolon; a comma would have been the correct punctuation mark to insert between them. Another example: [INCORRECT] The Justice Action Center would allow me to study and work in anti-discrimination law and criminal law; a few areas for which I have gained a passion. Again, the second part of this sentence, â€Å"a few areas for which I have gained a passion,† does NOT stand on its own as a sentence, so we need a comma. If you use your ear here, you’ll HEAR the difference.   Read the sentences aloud, and you will hear an upward inflection after the word â€Å"useful† in the first example and â€Å"law† in the second example. This upward inflection indicates what?   You got it. A comma. Here are the correctly punctuated sentences: [CORRECT] Finally you can convert all those friends on Facebook into something useful, spreading the word about your skills, experience and what a great hire you would make. [CORRECT] The Justice Action Center would allow me to study and work in anti-discrimination law and criminal law, a few areas for which I have gained a passion. Are you working on an academic paper, cover letter, college application essay, or other writing project? Do you still have questions about whether you’ve used commas and semicolons correctly?   Contact The Essay Expert for professional writing help! Category:Grammar Writing TipsBy Brenda BernsteinOctober 29, 2010 4 Comments Rosanne Dingli says: November 2, 2010 at 1:17 am Brenda! Wow fantastic. This is explained so clearly and succintly. Cant WAIT for how you do the colon. Log in to Reply Rosanne Dingli says: November 2, 2010 at 1:18 am Brenda! Wow fantastic. This is explained so clearly and succinctly. Cant WAIT for how you do the colon. Log in to Reply Laya Bajpai says: December 9, 2010 at 1:53 pm Brenda, This is one of the best lessons in the use of semi-colon, and comma and what is comma splice and how to correct it. You should be a grammar teacher. You are just excellent! Log in to Reply The Essay Expert says: December 27, 2011 at 10:29 am Thank you for your comment Judy. You are correct that no comma is required in this sentence. For my ear it works better. I do not think it is incorrect, though I would be willing to be proven wrong! Log in to Reply

Store locations Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Store locations - Essay Example To further deal with the marketability of the location, with regards to the aforementioned pharmacy, obtaining location and marketability data from two of its branches is a perfect barometer in determining how the location of the said establishment is essential in determining the feasibility of it. This study focuses on two selected branches of Walgreens in Miami and how will those branches show profitability and compliance with several criteria on why these locations were selected among others. Furthermore, this study aims to establish that location is indeed one of the most important factors to consider in putting-up a business enterprise in dealing with the marketability and profitability of the company. By analyzing two selected branches of Walgreens with regards to location, it would be possible to track the strong and weak points of the establishment with regards to its location and how this element affects the over-all standing of a certain business. This branch is situated almost in the center of Miami, Florida. ... A certain commercial online real estate described this location between Footlocker and Burdines Department store; this store will draw from both the local resident and daytime population, and the foreign tourists and more than 25 million cruise line passengers visiting Miami annually2. The description alone of the website would give the idea that the place is indeed visited by different people of different classification in which the store has a huge opportunity of being seen and visited by people because of its accessibility to the customers. However, analyzing the goods and services that Walgreens offer, it is very important to know, how many of these people would avail the goods and services it gives In other words, how many customers the store would be able to obtain from those people who manage to pass the location where the branch is located In these cases, it is also important to know the classification of the location in order to know if the place is indeed marketable for this enterprise to click and prosper. If we are to analyze, there are several hospitals and allied services in Florida that are located in the aforementioned street and would be an important factor for the said branch to obtain customers. It is established that these institutions needs the services of the said branch and therefore, the marketability of the branch is now clearer and established. The likes of Miami Children's Hospital, Mercy Hospital, Miami Heart Institute and Medical Center and other hospitals boost the chances of the said branch to penetrate the market with regards to the goods and services it offers. Also, the location is an ideal one as the aforementioned premises are

How Modern Terrorism Uses the internet Research Paper

How Modern Terrorism Uses the internet - Research Paper Example The Internet provides terrorists with several advantages. For example, terrorists could operate in a clandestine manner from a distance. Such endeavors could be across national and continental borders, and could be conducted without fear of detection or regulation. The expenditure and risk involved in cyber – attacks are significantly lower than a physical attack. Furthermore, cyber – attacks tend to attract the attention of the media to a considerable extent (Why Terrorists Use the Internet, 2005). These advantages are off setted by several disadvantages. For instance, the intricacy and distributed nature of the Internet makes it very difficult to control a terrorist attack and achieve the sought for objectives. Terrorist attacks on the Internet chiefly cause economic damage, and there is very little scope for employing such attacks to cause physical harm (Why Terrorists Use the Internet, 2005). As such, a terrorist attack that does not entail death and injury attracts less attention and is therefore less effective in spreading terror. Moreover, terrorists host websites that display terrifying videos of their brutal murders. One such video showed the brutal killing of an American journalist by the Islamic terrorists. The Islamic terrorist group, Al Qaeda employs advanced communication technology in conjunction with multimedia, in order to engage in a highly sophisticated form of psychological warfare (Weimann, 2004). The al Qaeda has unremittingly declared; via its websites that its attack on the World Trade Center served to significantly damage the US economy, in addition to causing severe psychological damage to the populace. This contention has been borne out to some extent by the weakening of the dollar and the diffidence generated in the US economy, at the national and international level (Weimann, 2004). Moreover, the Internet provides a convenient means for raising funds for not only political organizations, but also terrorist groups. In a ddition, terrorist groups employ the Internet to recruit and mobilize cadres. Terrorist organizations not only use the various web technologies to enhance their allure, but they also collect information about the entities that browse through their websites (Weimann, 2004). In addition, technical information regarding the manufacture and use of explosives is readily available on the Internet. For instance, there are several websites that post The Anarchist Cookbook and The Terrorist’s Handbook. These are detailed manuals for manufacturing a vast array of explosive devices (Weimann, 2004). A major use of the Internet made by terrorist groups is for planning and coordinating terrorist attacks. The September 11 attacks were witness to the large scale use of the Internet by the al Qaeda to mount its murderous attacks. A large number of encrypted messages were retrieved by federal officials from the computer of the al Qaeda terrorist Abu Zubaydah, the monster who had masterminded t hese iniquitous attacks (Weimann, 2004). Realizing the benefit being derived from the Internet, by the terrorists, the US Government embarked upon a counterterrorism strategy. This strategy was aimed at infiltrating the message boards of the Islamic terrorists. In addition, the staunch ally of the US, namely the UK was successful in hacking an English language online magazine of the al Qaeda (Ackerman, 2011). Moreover, in the UK, the Home Office had proposed that filtering software was

The impact of substance abuse in the work place Essay

The impact of substance abuse in the work place - Essay Example Being a supervisor, my responsibility involves maintaining a productive, safe and secure environment for all employees at the work place. It is also my responsibility to evaluate and conduct performance discussion with employees. In the course of my duty as a supervisor, it is expected of me to treat all employees fairly in a manner that does not demean anyone (opm.gov). During my supervisory duty, it came to my attention that Balbito exhibited the following problems of absenteeism at work missing work for about two days a week. In addition, Balbito also had the following problems; falling sick at work frequently, missing deadlines, sleeping at work, problems with handling recruits in a professional manner and being at loggerheads most of the time with other co-workers. Consequently, the situation prompted me to take intervention and referral preparation for the employee prior to the actual intervention and referral. To this regard, it became worthwhile to put down on paper the perfo rmance problem as concisely and precisely as possible. In addition, it was necessary for me to prepare myself professionally for a constructive confrontation with the employee, Balbito (opm.gov). The responsibility of diagnosing drug abuse or alcohol abuse is not among my duties. Furthermore, having all answers to problems of an employee is also not my duty. The responsibility of providing therapy or counseling is the duty of the EAP professionals not the supervisor. In my own perspective, these problems are mostly related to alcohol addiction. Although Balbito had earlier admitting having problems with alcohol abuse, I detected that it was rather an addiction. Balbito purportedly used alcohol for recreational purposes, but the symptoms of irresponsible handling of his duties suggested addiction of alcohol due to its use as a stress reliever. Since my professional requires strict supervision of the performance of employees, I intend to address the issue strictly with no sympathy in this context (opm.gov). First, am going to summon the employee (Balbito) and express my concern regarding his performance as a human resource professional. In the most precise manner, am going to inform him of the problem of alcohol addiction that has come to my attention. Additionally, I will avail the documentation of the problem to him in a professional way as the supervisor. At last, I will demand an explanation from him regarding his performance. Since the employee (Balbito) had already admitted his problem regarding alcohol abuse, I will refrain from personal issues and frame the discussion strictly to matters pertaining performance to resolve his problem. In a professional perspective, am going to address my concern regarding performance to get the employee (Balbito) to acknowledge the performance problem. During the performance discussion with the customer, I will order the employee (Balbito) to stop reporting to work under the influence of alcohol since it has a negative im pact on his performance. Adding to this, I will give the employee a fortnight to improve on his performance failure to which, he is subject to suspension from work for a period of one month. To make the intervention effective, am going to refer the employee (Balbito) to employee assistance program professional for counseling. By doing this, information concerning his privacy regarding this issue will be availed to him.

Can Regulation Of Tobacco Affect Health Care Costs Economics Essay

Can Regulation Of Tobacco Affect Health Care Costs Economics Essay The economic calculations associated with tobacco use are very complicated. For every savings, there are increased costs in other areas. Many productivity costs are subjective, while things like tax revenues are very definitive. These costs can be absorbed by various entities; public, private, and governmental. The tobacco industry has been viewed as the root of many of these costs. This industry has historically been exempt from oversight by any governmental agency, other than taxation. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has recently taken charge of overseeing and regulating many tobacco products, including cigarettes. Can the new regulations have any effect on health care costs? Why is tobacco use such a big deal? According to the World Health Organization (WHO), tobacco is the second major cause of death in the world, responsible for one in ten adults and the fourth most common risk factor for disease worldwide (2010). Costs (both public and private) associated with health care related to tobacco are astronomical. Productivity is reduced or lost when people are at their prime due to tobacco use. A 1994 report estimated that the use of tobacco resulted in an annual global net loss of US$ 200 thousand million, a third of this loss being in developing countries (World Health, 2010). This paper will look at the costs associated with tobacco use in the United States and the relationship regulation may have on reducing these costs. Compared to the length of time tobacco has been used, the health effects of its use are just recently becoming understood by the general public. Prior to this knowledge, the tobacco companies were free to advertise without any regulation. 1789 saw the first tobacco advertisement in the U.S for snuff. Communication, transportation, and manufacturing constraints of the time prevented any major branding and marketing successes. The first strong national tobacco brand didnt emerge until near the end of the Civil War, when both Union and Confederate soldiers in Durham, North Carolina raided a local farmers tobacco crop while waiting for a surrender to be completed. After the war was over, these soldiers began writing to the farmer, Mr. John Green, requesting more; Green went on to establish the successful Bull Durham Tobacco Company. (Collins Lapsley, 2010) The cigarette machine was one of the two major innovations that changed the industry and embedded tobacco into the minds of Americans. It was introduced in the 1880s and allowed companies to go from producing 40,000 hand-rolled cigarettes a day to over 4 million. The other major innovation came in the form of advertising. The color lithograph revolutionized advertising and packaging. These factors allowed companies to brand their products, searing them into the fabric of everyday life. Promotions, such as trading cards, were packaged with cigarettes and became collectors items. World War II came and went with millions of soldiers and sailors addicted to nicotine courtesy of free cigarettes issued along with meals. Marketing remained pretty much unregulated throughout the 1950s. Advertisements promoted how healthy it was to smoke and how doctors (whom the public trusted) recommend one brand over another. Sponsorship of television shows, like The Flintstones and Gunsmoke, propelled cigarette smoking into a normal and expected part of life. For tobacco companies, it was the Golden Age: cigarette ads featured endorsements from dentists, doctors, babies and even Yankees slugger Mickey Mantle (Collins Lapsley, 2010). Research evidence was beginning to mount of a link between tobacco use and lung cancer. Filtered cigarettes were born, which eventually led to light and low tar brands all of which have been proven to be no safer than regular ones. Rising public interest in health issues associated with tobacco use and concern about social costs associated with the care of sick tobacco users have created an atmosphere less tolerant than before. In the United States, social acceptance of tobacco use is rapidly declining. 1964 saw the first real public scrutiny of the tobacco industry when the U.S. Surgeon General released his first report on Smoking and Health. This comprehensive report outlined how tobacco had been shown in over 7,000 scientific studies to be linked to lung cancer, emphysema, and other diseases. This was the tipping point for many. Warning labels were mandated on packages. Advertising restrictions for radio and television were put in place. The public was put on notice that tobacco may not be all the things the industry was telling them. 18 Surgeon General reports have followed, as new findings have been proven. In 1996, cigarettes were labeled an addictive drug. The FDA sought to gain control over the industry and limit the sales and advertising of tobacco products (Brant, July 2008). With presidential support, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the industry in 2000 claiming the federal agency was never given the proper authority to regulate tobacco by Congress (Brant, July 2008). Restrictions are not new to the tobacco industry. Extremely deep pockets have allowed them the opportunity to design ways around most hurdles in the past (See Appendix). Regulation comes in many forms. State and local governments have passed laws throughout the years, most of which regard taxation. The recent passage of the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) tobacco regulation bill will give the national government much more power over the manufactures actions. This is the broadest and most comprehensive regulation over the tobacco industry ever. The FDA will be able to control product ingredients, labeling, marketing, and determine whether new products should be distributed. The budgetary impact of smoking Costs related to tobacco use can be looked at from different perspectives. There are related costs that are only seen by the individual, their family, and those close to them. Then there are the costs that are seen by society. These social costs are what drive many of the regulatory policies we have in the U.S. These costs must be balanced and weighed with the benefits associated with tobacco use. Organizations from several fronts are quick to weigh in on advantages and disadvantages of such policies. Each has their own agendas and use data to support them. High social costs justify more restrictive policies, while lower social costs support the argument against such policies. Calculating these costs is not simple. It is important not to count the same costs twice. A sick smoker that becomes dependent upon welfare payments instead of their job salary should not be seen as lost productivity and the cost of welfare payments. The first is a real cost (a real loss of resources) while the second is a pecuniary cost (a redistribution of resources from taxpayers to the smoker) (Adhikari, et al. December 30, 2008, p. 1227). Health care costs in the United States continue to account for an ever increasing percentage of personal and public expenditures. The budgetary impact of tobacco use generally is looked at as whether the tax revenues cover the costs that tobacco use imparts on government agencies. These costs are not just paid by these agencies. Personal and business costs, such as those of health insurance companies, bear massive burdens too. While we are often asked: Do smokers cover the smoking-related costs that the rest of the community bears?, the more relevant question is: Does the tobacco industry cover the communitys smoking-related costs?. The answer to this second question is almost certainly no' (Lindblom, 2010, p. 2). It has been estimated by the CDC that each pack of cigarettes sold in the United States costs the nation more than $7 in medical care and lost productivity (2010). The lifetime health costs of tobacco It is important to understand the difference between the lifetime personal health care costs of smokers compared to non-smokers. There is an argument that smoking provides benefits as well. It may be obvious that smokers have higher costs during their lifetimes, but one must consider the non-smoker lives a longer, more productive life, and therefore uses health care services for a longer period of time. Philip Morris, a major tobacco company conducted a detailed data analysis and submitted a 1999 official report to the government of the Czech Republic that they should let Philip Morris sell cigarettes in their country. They (Philip Morris) said that the government would save approximately $1,227 US per person on savings of health care for older people and increase in taxable revenue (Philip Morris, 2000). The industry is in a catch 22 situation when arguing this point. Premature death associated with tobacco use must be admitted and the economics must outweigh human life. The Center for Disease control estimates that male smokers have approximately $16,500 more lifetime health care cost and females have approximately $19,500 than those that do not smoke. (Campaign, 2010) This adds up to considerable amounts that someone must absorb. The nationwide total in 2004 was almost $98 billion(Adhikari, et al. 2008, p. 2228). Measures to reduce tobacco demand There are many different regulatory measures that can be used to significantly impact tobacco use, such as bans on direct and indirect tobacco advertising, tobacco tax and price increases, smoke-free environments in all public and workplaces, and large clear graphic health messages on tobacco packaging (Collins Lapsley, 2010). Tobacco taxation Taxation is probably the most effective (and certainly the most cost-effective) means of reducing tobacco consumption. Studies have shown that higher prices equate to less people using, especially youth. Young people have less disposable income than older people. This makes them more sensitive to changes in price. Adult tobacco use also changes in relation to price increase too, but not as much as youth. Burman notes that research has shown that a 10 percent increase in the price of cigarettes would reduce youth smoking by more than 10 percent (Brandt, July 31, 2008, p. 447). Taxes can be used to this benefit, along with the increase in public funds that can be focused on tobacco prevention programs. Cigarette taxes can be seen as a double edged sword. Governments can become as addicted to the tobacco tax income as smokers are to lighting up every day. The amounts of money are astronomical. The President of the United States, Barack Obama signed into law on February 4, 2009 a 62-cent federal tax increase per pack of cigarettes, along with increases in other types of tobacco too. This money is to be used to fund the State Childrens Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), a major childrens health reform package. The federal cigarette tax is $1.01 per pack and the average state tax is just over $1.00 per pack. According to the Tax Trade Bureau, over 16 billion state tax-paid packs were sold in FY2009. The total tobacco revenue generated for government use is approximately $39 billion. This significant figure is enough to get any legislator looking for the source and wondering how to keep it. Several states have hoped to fund health care with tobacco dollars. Massachusetts, California, Oregon, and even the federal SCHIP program have come under heavy opposition from the tobacco industry. The SCHIP program was finally approved, but the other propositions ultimately failed. The primary argument used against such taxes is that a tobacco tax is a regressive tax, meaning that it affects poor people more so than others. Approximately 33 percent of those living at or below the poverty level smoke. The argument is that a greater portion of their income is spent on tobacco, and therefore the tax would be greater. Counter to this argument for the SCHIP funding is that the program is designed to disproportionately benefit those in this income level. And so, under an expanded SCHIP, low-income families would have essentially paid $164 to get $1,700 worth of coverage (Robert Wood, May 18, 2009). Theres a big difference in the cost to society and what society is getting back in tax, said Dr. Terry Pechacek, the associate director of the CDCs Office of Smoking and Health. We believe society is bearing a burden for the individual behavioral choices of the smokers. A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention put the nations total cost of smoking at $3,391 a year for every smoker, or $157.7 billion (Curfman, Morrissey, Drazen, June 22, 2009). Poverty and tobacco are closely linked. Some studies have noticed that in some countries, the poorest households can spend up to 10 percent of their entire income on tobacco products. It is difficult to ascertain how this might have a direct impact on malnutrition, health care and longevity of life, as well as things like literacy rates. Tobacco has a wide reaching impact. Restrictions on advertising and other promotion Anti-tobacco campaigners support restrictions on advertising and promotion. It seems obvious that promotion and advertising increase the demand to use, or the industry would not spend the amounts they do. According to the Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids, from 1998 to 2006, tobacco industry marketing has increased, nationwide, by more than 85 percent, with tobacco industry marketing in 2006 totaling at least $12.8 billion (or more than $35 million per day) (2010). The tobacco industry addresses these concerns with the rhetoric that advertising does not increase the market size, merely determining the market shares of individual firms. While this point is difficult to determine, a key finding from the national youth tobacco survey indicates that the three most heavily used brands of cigarettes by teens are the three most heavily advertised by the industry. Studies on the effect of these restrictions indicate that partial restrictions (i.e. location or type only) have little impact on demand. Restrictions on advertising and marketing do not change the amount the industry spends, only the location and types of activities. They simply shift to non-restricted types of marketing. This is why it is difficult to determine the effectiveness of marketing restrictions. When restrictions are imposed that affect multiple avenues, tobacco consumption goes down significantly. This supports the thought that marketing increases the market size, not just move customers from one brand to another. Health information and counter advertising Anti-tobacco campaigns use pro-health messages and counter-marketing campaigns have been show to have some effect in swaying people away from use. The premise is that the better educated users or potential users are, the better chance they will chose not to us the products. This is a difficult avenue to promote anti-tobacco messages, as it is extremely costly and directly competes with the marketing expenditures of the tobacco industry. There is no way to match, dollar for dollar. Success comes from the combination of efforts counter-marketing with the other restrictions. There is a synergistic effect. Smoking restrictions and bans on sales to youth Youth tobacco use is of utmost importance to the tobacco industry and the anti-tobacco movement organizations. From the 1950s to the present, different defendants, at different times and using different methods, have intentionally marketed to young people under the age of twenty-one in order to recruit replacement smokers to ensure the economic future of the tobacco industry (Campaign, 2010). Where someone can smoke has become a frontline issue. Restrictions of the location, such as restaurants, workplaces, and other public places, make it more difficult for the smoker to light up. This creates an incentive to quit and reduces the opportunity for others to start. These restrictions reduce the amount of tobacco people use, reduce the prevalence of smoking, and have a direct impact on the exposure of second-hand smoke to others. Other smoking cessation interventions Cessation programs have made an impact on tobacco prevalence too. Pharmacological product advancements, from nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), to newer products such as Chantix à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚ ¢ have helped the tobacco user assure success. These products are heavily marketed and many health care organizations provide them with little or no costs associated to the patient. Some argue the cost benefit of public subsidy of these products is a win-win based on health care costs saved. FDA Tobacco Legislation Through the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, the Food and Drug Administration of the U.S. federal government was recently granted authority to oversee many tobacco products. Members of Congress and health organizations have worked toward this goal for many years. This new authority includes many of the items discussed above, i.e. manufacturing standards, marketing and sales practices. The legislation is a very comprehensive approach to changing tobacco use among Americans, now and for future generations. New standards for additives, flavors (other than menthol), restrictions on sales, distribution, and marketing apply. Detailed ingredients will have to be disclosed. The FDA will have the authority to require changes to products. This is the first major governmental step to protect the public from the harms of tobacco. The new law: Restricts Marketing and Sales of Tobacco Products to Children bans ads within 1000 feet of schools and playgrounds eliminates sweetened (candy flavored) cigarettes Requires Detailed Tobacco Product Disclosure Provides Access to Tobacco Manufacturers Research Strengthens Tobacco Product Warning Labels warning labels must cover 50 percent of the front and back of the pack. Allows FDA to Require Changes to Tobacco Products to Reduce Risk Where Technologically Feasible Regulates Health Claims For Scientific Accuracy And Public Health Impact Evaluates Reduced Risk Health Claims For New Products eliminates cigarettes from being labeled light or low tar Regulates Only Manufacturers, Not Farmers The Congressional Budget Offices (CBO) examination of the new law shows an expected reduction in the number of underage tobacco users of 11 percent by 2019. CBO also estimates will lead to a further decline in smoking by adults by about 2 percent after 10 years. The expected impact of the legislation on the use of tobacco products stems from a combination of regulatory and economic factors. (Congressional, 2009) Impact of FDA Regulation of Tobacco on Medicaid The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates that the new FDA tobacco rules will lead to a reduction in smoking among pregnant women. Pregnant women that do not smoke during pregnancy are less likely to have low birth weight children. Low birth weight kids cost more at birth and during childhood. As a result, state spending for Medicaid would decrease by an estimated $17 million over the 2010-2014 period, with additional savings in subsequent years (Yang Novotny, 2009). Medicaid expenditures are expected to be reduced by $100 million over 10 years. Other Medicare expenditures are positively affected by the FDA rules too. Heart attacks and stroke are less likely to occur in non-smokers, which will mean acute care services costs will decrease, but it is unclear as to by how much. Medicare costs may increase in some areas due to increased life spans and the payout associated with that. Conclusion A key aspect of tobacco prevention is that as people decide not to use tobacco products, their health will be generally better. If all Americans stopped smoking-beginning with this generation of teens-that would do more to improve the health of the nation that any other reform (Adhikari, et al. December 30, 2008, p. 1227). The economic calculations associated with tobacco use are very complicated. For every savings, there is an increase in costs in another area. Many productivity costs are subjective, while things like tax revenues are very definitive. Public and private costs have to be figured separately. However, there are situations where they overlap and care must be taken to count them in only one spot. For instance, someone that lives just below the poverty line and smokes may rely on public assistance for many things, like health care. That same person quits and their relative household revenue and productivity increases. They may not be as reliant on public assistance. The i ncrease in their revenue and productivity cannot be counted if the decrease in public assistance spending is also counted. It is certain that more regulation, like that in the new FDA program will indeed reduce tobacco use. It is certain that reduction in tobacco use equates to less money spent overall on health care compared to the smoker, but may increase health care costs long term due to extended life span. It is certain that overall productivity will increase as tobacco use decreases. The real questions occur when these issues are followed by the question of By how much?. It is almost like Newtons Law of motion, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The factor that must be considered is the value of life length and productivity. These values can sway the equation massively in one direction or the other. The latest estimates of total smoking-attributable health care costs approach $100 billion. Private insurance covers 50 percent of smoking-related medical costs for people aged 19-64 (American Academy, 2010). Education about the effects of smoking on health continues to escalate. As more is learned, the estimates increase as to the costs associated with tobacco use.